Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
